You'll notice I've removed my John Edwards graphic on the side of my page. I've decided I prematurely declared an allegiance. The fact of the matter is simple; John Edwards is a great guy. So are Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and Hillary Clinton (well, not a great guy). I can't, in good conscience, go ahead and make a solid commitment nearly two years out.
I'm truly undecided. Right now (and it's fluid--it changes every single day), my ranking looks like this (in alphabetic order):
First tier:
Biden, Obama, Richardson
Second tier:
Dodd, Edwards, Kerry, Kucinich, Vilsack
Third tier:
Clinton, Gravel
I appologize to all the Edwards people out there, but I just can't say I'm fully for him right now.
And that's where I stand today.
-Neal
January 16, 2007
January 15, 2007
Joe Johnson Is In
According to a comment made by Delegate Chris Saxman over at NLS today indicate that Delegate Johnson will be running for re-election this November.
I'm glad to hear this news for two major reasons. The first, most important reason is that it says Delegate Johnson is recovering. Secondly, very minor compared to Delegate Johnson's health, is that this seat will be safe for our side until he retires.
Good luck to Delegate Johnson in November [not that he'll need it :-) ]!
-Neal
I'm glad to hear this news for two major reasons. The first, most important reason is that it says Delegate Johnson is recovering. Secondly, very minor compared to Delegate Johnson's health, is that this seat will be safe for our side until he retires.
Good luck to Delegate Johnson in November [not that he'll need it :-) ]!
-Neal
January 13, 2007
So You Know Where I'm Coming From...
According to OnTheIssues.org, this is where I stand (and I tend to believe it's on the mark):
According to this grid, I'm a Liberal Populist. Agreed.
Go take the test and see where you fall.
-Neal
January 12, 2007
The Latest Quiz Craze
Well, I saw this quiz over on Vivian Paige, and I've been having hours and hours of fun with it. Here's my results:
You're Richardson-Bayh!
As Bill Richardson, you have been known to sell out. In your youth, you believed in ideals
like peacemaking and diplomacy, but when you got a call with an opportunity to justify war for a higher bidder, you were only too happy to take it! As even more time has passed, you have withdrawn to an obscure location to plan your next mission. While many know that you may hold the keys to understanding a very difficult situation, no one is sure if you care about it anymore. You would never let your identity infiltrate your name.
You select Evan Bayh as your running mate to try to turn Indiana blue for the first time
in 34 years.
Take the 2008 Presidential Ticket Quiz
at the Blue Pyramid.
----------------------------------------------------------
Okay, here's the thing; I really do like Bill Richardson, but he's not my top choice. But that explanation of Richardson is really mean-spirited, moreso that several of the others. And, I also wouldn't ever pick Evan Bayh as a VP. And, one other question, who would ever pick Mike Gravel for Vice President??? Ever?
2007 Races In SWVA
I've been meaning to write about this since our BVDC meeting on Monday night.
It appears that 2007 could be a potentially interesting year in my little part of the state.
State Senator William Wampler appears unlikely to face a Democratic challenger, since nobody has stepped up to run against him (and I'm not 21...), and time is running out for a viable candidate. According to our chairman, however, it appears possible that Senator Wampler will have a primary challenge from someone to his right, from up in Washington County.
Delegate Joe Johnson, if you don't know, isn't in as good a shape as he could be. He's had some major health issues since November/December of 2006 (which explains why he was absent from the campaign trail), and according to his brother, whom I ran into the other day, he's progressing, but not very quickly. The County and City Chairman who are in his district have until January 15th to meet and determine what to do about the race, and so therefore Delegate Johnson will have to make a decision before then. I know of at least a couple potentially strong Democratic candidates who are looking at the race should Delegate Johnson be forced to retire, but we'll not go into who they may be, out of respect for one of the best Delegates in Virginia.
Right now, I would place the probability at 50/50 Delegate Johnson will run for re-election. If he is going to run, he sure is cutting it close.
In the Wampler situation, I think it is of utmost importance our state party field candidates in all races, even if they don't appear to be extremely competitive. The 2006 Senate election is proof positive that one day can change the entire landscape of a campaign.
It appears that 2007 could be a potentially interesting year in my little part of the state.
State Senator William Wampler appears unlikely to face a Democratic challenger, since nobody has stepped up to run against him (and I'm not 21...), and time is running out for a viable candidate. According to our chairman, however, it appears possible that Senator Wampler will have a primary challenge from someone to his right, from up in Washington County.
Delegate Joe Johnson, if you don't know, isn't in as good a shape as he could be. He's had some major health issues since November/December of 2006 (which explains why he was absent from the campaign trail), and according to his brother, whom I ran into the other day, he's progressing, but not very quickly. The County and City Chairman who are in his district have until January 15th to meet and determine what to do about the race, and so therefore Delegate Johnson will have to make a decision before then. I know of at least a couple potentially strong Democratic candidates who are looking at the race should Delegate Johnson be forced to retire, but we'll not go into who they may be, out of respect for one of the best Delegates in Virginia.
Right now, I would place the probability at 50/50 Delegate Johnson will run for re-election. If he is going to run, he sure is cutting it close.
In the Wampler situation, I think it is of utmost importance our state party field candidates in all races, even if they don't appear to be extremely competitive. The 2006 Senate election is proof positive that one day can change the entire landscape of a campaign.
January 3, 2007
2008 Looks Great for Senate Democrats (Part 2 of 2)
Alrighty, here's Part 2 of the "2008 Looks Great for Senate Democrats" post. I'll be covering the 21 Republican-held seats, and make the case that we should make significant gains. Here we go.
Alabama - Jeff Sessions (R-First elected 1996)
Senator Jefferson Beauregard Sessions, III (he prefers Jeff) has become a rubber stamp for President Bush, often bordering on comical. He's a rabid defender of Bush, and it could be his downfall. Bush has a 42% approval rating in Alabama (which is big news, since he had been over 10 points higher a year ago). One potential Democratic challenger is Congressman Artur Davis.
Alaska - Ted Stevens (R-First elected 1968)
Senator Ted "Bridge to Nowhere" Stevens will be running for re-election in 2008, despite several cryptic statements to the contrary ("Tonight, I say goodbye to the Senate."). Senator Stevens probably shouldn't have any big trouble being re-elected, but a strong Democrat could make things competitive. The potential candidates on our side include Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich and State Representative Eric Croft.
Colorado - Wayne Allard (R-First elected 1996)
Wayne Allard is doing something rather rare. It appears that he may honor his self-imposed term limits pledge and not seek a third term. But, in true Republican fashion, has left himself wiggle room just in case. He promises to make his final decision in 2007. A potential Republican candidate should Allard retire (and I bet he would be like handling rotten eggs for the White House and RNC) is Congressman Tom Tancredo. Congressman Mark Udall, son of the legendary Congressman Mo Udall, is the most likely Democratic candidate (and a very good one at that). Whether Allard seeks re-election or not, my money is on Udall.
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss (R-First elected 2002)
Senator Saxby Chambliss ran a very negative campaign against then-incumbent Democrat Max Cleland in 2002, and Democrats in Georgia haven't forgotten that. Because Georgia is a Republican state, there are only a few Democrats who could beat Chambliss, among them are Congressman Jim Marshall and Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin.
Idaho - Larry Craig (R-First elected 1990)
Idaho is a very Republican state, and if Larry Craig runs for a 4th term, he'll be re-elected easily. There have, however, been some whispers that he may decide not to run again. If he doesn't run, Congressman Mike Simpson would be the likely GOP choice. Whether he runs or not, former Congressman Larry LaRocco will likely run as a Democrat. But I wouldn't put too much money on an upset here.
Kansas - Pat Roberts (R-First elected 1996)
Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, so I don't think they'll start now. If and when this seat (or Brownback's seat in 2010) comes open, however, Congressman Dennis Moore and Governor Kathleen Sebelius would be strong candidates for the Democrats.
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R-First elected 1984)
I've heard people say that Senator Mitch McConnell could be vulnerable. Well, no, I don't think he is. As the incoming Minority Leader, Senator McConnell will wield a huge amount of power in the 110th Congress and I don't see Kentuckians allowing Jim Bunning to ever be called their "Senior Senator" (Jim Bunning should have stuck to baseball. Maybe he could manage the Pittsburgh Pirates. But that should be left for another story). Potential Democratic candidates include Attorney General Greg Stumbo and Congressman John Yarmuth. But if I were them, I wouldn't waste the money. I'd wait until 2010 and take a shot at Bunning's seat.
Maine - Susan Collins (R-First elected 1996)
Even though Senator Susan Collins has a 69% approval rating, she could become the 2008 victim of "The Lincoln Chafee Effect." While people may like her (and they do), they realize that she's still a Republican, and she's still voting with the Sam Brownbacks and Trent Lotts of the world. And they may just turn her out on her ear. Her likely challenger is Democratic Congressman Tom Allen.
Minnesota - Norm Coleman (R-First elected 2002)
Most folks agree that Norm Coleman is in the Senate mainly because of backlash from Senator Paul Wellstone's memorial service just days before the election. He defeated a Minnesota legend, former Vice President Walter Mondale by a close margin, and he would have likely been defeated if the memorial hadn't turned into a political rally. Norm Coleman is probably the most endangered Republican in 2008, and, with a very deep Democratic bench, we'll find out. Potential Democratic candidates include former Attorney General Mike Hatch, State Senator Dean Johnson, Congresswoman Betty McCollum, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, and Al Franken. Folks, this is the seat that Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, and Paul Wellstone all held. We need to reclaim it for the Democrats.
Mississippi - Thad Cochran (R-First elected 1978)
Senator Cochran, the first Republican elected statewide in Mississippi in modern times, is a sure bet for re-election if he runs. But that's a big if. Senator Cochran has said he won't decide whether to seek re-election until 2007, indicating that he may be stalling until the GOP can find a top-notch candidate. Right now, the potential GOPers are Congressmen Roger Wicker and Chip Pickering (call me old-fashioned, but any sentence that could begin with "Senator Chip..." makes me want to blow my lunch). On the Democrat side, we have Congressman Gene Taylor (who would probably be the best candidate on either side, bar none) and former Attorney General Mike Moore (I also can't see Mississippians electing someone who's name would probably show on the ballot as "Michael Moore").
Nebraska - Chuck Hagel (R-First elected 1996)
Apparently, Chuck Hagel is contemplating retirement even if he can't get to be president (and I really doubt he could get the nomination. He could probably win a general election though). If he runs, he'll be re-elected with probably 70% or so. If he doesn't run, the potential Republican nominee would be Congressman Lee Terry, and the likely Democratic challenger would be Omaha Mayor (and former Washington Senators catcher) Bill Fahey.
New Mexico - Pete Domenici (R-First elected 1972)
Senator Pete Domenici, known to be in poor health, has indicated he will seek re-election, but he could change his mind if his health continues to deteriorate. If he runs for re-election, he would be the favorite, but, in a state that re-elected Bill Richardson by a huge margin this year, and that has a longtime Democratic senator, too, Domenici could be vulnerable. If he doesn't run for re-election, this seat would move way up on the list of races to watch. Potential Democratic challengers include Congressman Tom Udall (although Udall just landed a seat on the Appropriations Committee), Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, and former Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Potential GOPers will surely step up if Domenici retires, but right now, I can't come up with any.
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole (R-First elected 2002)
Senator Elizabeth Dole, who not only headed up the fiasco that became the NRSC in 2006, is a possible retirement, but she has indicated (not 100% positive, apparently) that she will run for re-election. She probably won't have much trouble getting a second term, but there are several Democrats who could potentially give her a race. The names I've heard include Governor Mike Easley (probably the top choice), Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and State Representative Dan Blue (I'm a big fan of Rep. Blue).
Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe (R-First elected 1994)
Senator Jim Inhofe, the most blatant denier of global warming I've ever seen in my life, has been iffy about running again in 2008, but he says he wants to regain his leadership posts in 2008 (but don't they all have to say that?). Even if Senator Inhofe runs again, his approval is only 46%, so he might be vulnerable. Possible Democratic candidates include the son of the man (Senator David Boren) Inhofe replaced, Representative Dan Boren (although Boren says he won't run unless Inhofe retires), Governor Brad Henry, Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor, Attorney General Drew Edmondson, and former Congressman Brad Carson.
Oregon - Gordon Smith (R-First elected 1996)
Senator Gordon Smith, the only Republican member of the Udall Dynasty, will be running for a third term in 2008. I genuinely like Senator Smith, and his strong opposition to the Iraq War also helps out. But even a mediocre Democrat is better than a great Republican, and I believe this can be a pickup. State Senator Ben Westlund, a former Republican, is a potential Democratic challenger.
South Carolina - Lindsey Graham (R-First elected 2002)
This was Strom Thurmond's seat from 1954-2002. Let's hope Senator Graham doesn't hold this seat for forty-eight years. It will be difficult to knock Lindsey off, but, with the right candidate, it can be done. I haven't heard any real serious names, but I would suggest either Inez Tenenbaum, the former State Superintendent, or Tommy Moore, the 2006 Democratic nominee for Governor.
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (R-First elected 2002)
Perennial Presidential wannabe Lamar Alexander, who narrowly lost the election to be Minority Whip in the 110th Congress will be running for a 2nd term in 2008. Alexander would be considered the favorite from the onset, just because Tennessee is pretty solidly Republican (except for the fact Phil Bredesen won every county in Tennessee in 2006). However, Harold Ford's strong showing in 2006 could be a sign that the state could be swinging back to the middle. Potential candidates include 2006 nominee and former Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. and Governor Phil Bredesen (I believe he would be the best candidate possible). Tim McGraw has also expressed interest in running for public office in Tennessee in the future (and he's as solid a Democrat as I've ever seen), but I doubt this will be his race. Maybe 2012 against Bob Corker (just so we'll never have to see the "I'm Bob Corker and I approve this message" commercials ever again).
Texas - John Cornyn (R-First elected 2002)
Senator John "Up or Down Vote" Cornyn (and I wonder if he would be screaming "Up or down vote" if John Kerry were President right now) will be running for a 2nd term in 2008. Unsurprisingly, Cornyn's approval rating is no where near Kay Bailey Hutchison's. Granted, there are no statewide elected Democrats in Texas, but I believe this seat is a possible pickup (not as much as Minnesota or Maine though). Potential candidates include 2006 nominee Barbara Ann Radnofsky, former Congressman Chris Bell, former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, Houston Mayor Bill White, Congressman Henry Cuellar (probably one of the most electable candidates), Congressman Lloyd Doggett, and former Congressman Ken Bentsen.
Virginia - John Warner (R-First elected 1978) (Note: This one will be covered in-depth (VERY in-depth) later this week.)
Senator John Warner, who will be 81 years old in 2008, has indicated he will run for re-election. Recently, he has stated that the attacks on George Allen from Virginia liberal blogs may make him weary to run, possibly fearing a tough, nasty campaign. Should Senator Warner seek re-election, there's probably only one candidate who could beat him (and we all know who he is). Potential GOP candidates if Senator Warner retire include Congressman Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore (because we assume that President thing won't work out for him). Potential Democratic candidates include former Governor Mark Warner (May I introduce the 800-pound gorilla in the room), and, assuming Warner doesn't run, former Lt. Governor Don Beyer.
Wyoming - Mike Enzi (R-First elected 1996)
Since this is the last race, I'd love to go out with a bang and say there's an amazingly strong Democratic candidate waiting in the wings to take out Senator Enzi, but alas, there's not. Everybody move on. Nothing to see here.
Alabama - Jeff Sessions (R-First elected 1996)
Senator Jefferson Beauregard Sessions, III (he prefers Jeff) has become a rubber stamp for President Bush, often bordering on comical. He's a rabid defender of Bush, and it could be his downfall. Bush has a 42% approval rating in Alabama (which is big news, since he had been over 10 points higher a year ago). One potential Democratic challenger is Congressman Artur Davis.
Alaska - Ted Stevens (R-First elected 1968)
Senator Ted "Bridge to Nowhere" Stevens will be running for re-election in 2008, despite several cryptic statements to the contrary ("Tonight, I say goodbye to the Senate."). Senator Stevens probably shouldn't have any big trouble being re-elected, but a strong Democrat could make things competitive. The potential candidates on our side include Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich and State Representative Eric Croft.
Colorado - Wayne Allard (R-First elected 1996)
Wayne Allard is doing something rather rare. It appears that he may honor his self-imposed term limits pledge and not seek a third term. But, in true Republican fashion, has left himself wiggle room just in case. He promises to make his final decision in 2007. A potential Republican candidate should Allard retire (and I bet he would be like handling rotten eggs for the White House and RNC) is Congressman Tom Tancredo. Congressman Mark Udall, son of the legendary Congressman Mo Udall, is the most likely Democratic candidate (and a very good one at that). Whether Allard seeks re-election or not, my money is on Udall.
Georgia - Saxby Chambliss (R-First elected 2002)
Senator Saxby Chambliss ran a very negative campaign against then-incumbent Democrat Max Cleland in 2002, and Democrats in Georgia haven't forgotten that. Because Georgia is a Republican state, there are only a few Democrats who could beat Chambliss, among them are Congressman Jim Marshall and Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin.
Idaho - Larry Craig (R-First elected 1990)
Idaho is a very Republican state, and if Larry Craig runs for a 4th term, he'll be re-elected easily. There have, however, been some whispers that he may decide not to run again. If he doesn't run, Congressman Mike Simpson would be the likely GOP choice. Whether he runs or not, former Congressman Larry LaRocco will likely run as a Democrat. But I wouldn't put too much money on an upset here.
Kansas - Pat Roberts (R-First elected 1996)
Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, so I don't think they'll start now. If and when this seat (or Brownback's seat in 2010) comes open, however, Congressman Dennis Moore and Governor Kathleen Sebelius would be strong candidates for the Democrats.
Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R-First elected 1984)
I've heard people say that Senator Mitch McConnell could be vulnerable. Well, no, I don't think he is. As the incoming Minority Leader, Senator McConnell will wield a huge amount of power in the 110th Congress and I don't see Kentuckians allowing Jim Bunning to ever be called their "Senior Senator" (Jim Bunning should have stuck to baseball. Maybe he could manage the Pittsburgh Pirates. But that should be left for another story). Potential Democratic candidates include Attorney General Greg Stumbo and Congressman John Yarmuth. But if I were them, I wouldn't waste the money. I'd wait until 2010 and take a shot at Bunning's seat.
Maine - Susan Collins (R-First elected 1996)
Even though Senator Susan Collins has a 69% approval rating, she could become the 2008 victim of "The Lincoln Chafee Effect." While people may like her (and they do), they realize that she's still a Republican, and she's still voting with the Sam Brownbacks and Trent Lotts of the world. And they may just turn her out on her ear. Her likely challenger is Democratic Congressman Tom Allen.
Minnesota - Norm Coleman (R-First elected 2002)
Most folks agree that Norm Coleman is in the Senate mainly because of backlash from Senator Paul Wellstone's memorial service just days before the election. He defeated a Minnesota legend, former Vice President Walter Mondale by a close margin, and he would have likely been defeated if the memorial hadn't turned into a political rally. Norm Coleman is probably the most endangered Republican in 2008, and, with a very deep Democratic bench, we'll find out. Potential Democratic candidates include former Attorney General Mike Hatch, State Senator Dean Johnson, Congresswoman Betty McCollum, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, and Al Franken. Folks, this is the seat that Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, and Paul Wellstone all held. We need to reclaim it for the Democrats.
Mississippi - Thad Cochran (R-First elected 1978)
Senator Cochran, the first Republican elected statewide in Mississippi in modern times, is a sure bet for re-election if he runs. But that's a big if. Senator Cochran has said he won't decide whether to seek re-election until 2007, indicating that he may be stalling until the GOP can find a top-notch candidate. Right now, the potential GOPers are Congressmen Roger Wicker and Chip Pickering (call me old-fashioned, but any sentence that could begin with "Senator Chip..." makes me want to blow my lunch). On the Democrat side, we have Congressman Gene Taylor (who would probably be the best candidate on either side, bar none) and former Attorney General Mike Moore (I also can't see Mississippians electing someone who's name would probably show on the ballot as "Michael Moore").
Nebraska - Chuck Hagel (R-First elected 1996)
Apparently, Chuck Hagel is contemplating retirement even if he can't get to be president (and I really doubt he could get the nomination. He could probably win a general election though). If he runs, he'll be re-elected with probably 70% or so. If he doesn't run, the potential Republican nominee would be Congressman Lee Terry, and the likely Democratic challenger would be Omaha Mayor (and former Washington Senators catcher) Bill Fahey.
New Mexico - Pete Domenici (R-First elected 1972)
Senator Pete Domenici, known to be in poor health, has indicated he will seek re-election, but he could change his mind if his health continues to deteriorate. If he runs for re-election, he would be the favorite, but, in a state that re-elected Bill Richardson by a huge margin this year, and that has a longtime Democratic senator, too, Domenici could be vulnerable. If he doesn't run for re-election, this seat would move way up on the list of races to watch. Potential Democratic challengers include Congressman Tom Udall (although Udall just landed a seat on the Appropriations Committee), Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, and former Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Potential GOPers will surely step up if Domenici retires, but right now, I can't come up with any.
North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole (R-First elected 2002)
Senator Elizabeth Dole, who not only headed up the fiasco that became the NRSC in 2006, is a possible retirement, but she has indicated (not 100% positive, apparently) that she will run for re-election. She probably won't have much trouble getting a second term, but there are several Democrats who could potentially give her a race. The names I've heard include Governor Mike Easley (probably the top choice), Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and State Representative Dan Blue (I'm a big fan of Rep. Blue).
Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe (R-First elected 1994)
Senator Jim Inhofe, the most blatant denier of global warming I've ever seen in my life, has been iffy about running again in 2008, but he says he wants to regain his leadership posts in 2008 (but don't they all have to say that?). Even if Senator Inhofe runs again, his approval is only 46%, so he might be vulnerable. Possible Democratic candidates include the son of the man (Senator David Boren) Inhofe replaced, Representative Dan Boren (although Boren says he won't run unless Inhofe retires), Governor Brad Henry, Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor, Attorney General Drew Edmondson, and former Congressman Brad Carson.
Oregon - Gordon Smith (R-First elected 1996)
Senator Gordon Smith, the only Republican member of the Udall Dynasty, will be running for a third term in 2008. I genuinely like Senator Smith, and his strong opposition to the Iraq War also helps out. But even a mediocre Democrat is better than a great Republican, and I believe this can be a pickup. State Senator Ben Westlund, a former Republican, is a potential Democratic challenger.
South Carolina - Lindsey Graham (R-First elected 2002)
This was Strom Thurmond's seat from 1954-2002. Let's hope Senator Graham doesn't hold this seat for forty-eight years. It will be difficult to knock Lindsey off, but, with the right candidate, it can be done. I haven't heard any real serious names, but I would suggest either Inez Tenenbaum, the former State Superintendent, or Tommy Moore, the 2006 Democratic nominee for Governor.
Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (R-First elected 2002)
Perennial Presidential wannabe Lamar Alexander, who narrowly lost the election to be Minority Whip in the 110th Congress will be running for a 2nd term in 2008. Alexander would be considered the favorite from the onset, just because Tennessee is pretty solidly Republican (except for the fact Phil Bredesen won every county in Tennessee in 2006). However, Harold Ford's strong showing in 2006 could be a sign that the state could be swinging back to the middle. Potential candidates include 2006 nominee and former Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. and Governor Phil Bredesen (I believe he would be the best candidate possible). Tim McGraw has also expressed interest in running for public office in Tennessee in the future (and he's as solid a Democrat as I've ever seen), but I doubt this will be his race. Maybe 2012 against Bob Corker (just so we'll never have to see the "I'm Bob Corker and I approve this message" commercials ever again).
Texas - John Cornyn (R-First elected 2002)
Senator John "Up or Down Vote" Cornyn (and I wonder if he would be screaming "Up or down vote" if John Kerry were President right now) will be running for a 2nd term in 2008. Unsurprisingly, Cornyn's approval rating is no where near Kay Bailey Hutchison's. Granted, there are no statewide elected Democrats in Texas, but I believe this seat is a possible pickup (not as much as Minnesota or Maine though). Potential candidates include 2006 nominee Barbara Ann Radnofsky, former Congressman Chris Bell, former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, Houston Mayor Bill White, Congressman Henry Cuellar (probably one of the most electable candidates), Congressman Lloyd Doggett, and former Congressman Ken Bentsen.
Virginia - John Warner (R-First elected 1978) (Note: This one will be covered in-depth (VERY in-depth) later this week.)
Senator John Warner, who will be 81 years old in 2008, has indicated he will run for re-election. Recently, he has stated that the attacks on George Allen from Virginia liberal blogs may make him weary to run, possibly fearing a tough, nasty campaign. Should Senator Warner seek re-election, there's probably only one candidate who could beat him (and we all know who he is). Potential GOP candidates if Senator Warner retire include Congressman Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore (because we assume that President thing won't work out for him). Potential Democratic candidates include former Governor Mark Warner (May I introduce the 800-pound gorilla in the room), and, assuming Warner doesn't run, former Lt. Governor Don Beyer.
Wyoming - Mike Enzi (R-First elected 1996)
Since this is the last race, I'd love to go out with a bang and say there's an amazingly strong Democratic candidate waiting in the wings to take out Senator Enzi, but alas, there's not. Everybody move on. Nothing to see here.
2008 Senate Races
Apparently, the Republicans are taking me longer than I thought it would. So look for it around mid-day tomorrow (I've been working on it for like an hour and a half, and I'm on New Mexico).
Night.
-Neal
Night.
-Neal
January 2, 2007
2008 Looks Great for Senate Democrats (Part 1 of 2)
Perhaps it's too early to begin talking about the 2008 U.S. Senate elections since we haven't even had the swearing-in ceremonies for the Senators elected in 2006 yet. But, being the political creature that I am, I can't wait too talk about it. The way I figure it, things look great for the Democrats. There are 21 Republican-held seats, as opposed to 12 Democrat-held seats. Most of the Democrats are solid bets for re-election, the possible exceptions being Mary Landrieu (LA) and Tim Johnson (SD), who may have a little trouble (Johnson could also hang it up and not seek re-election).
So, first we'll look at the Democrat-held seats we'll be defending.
Arkansas - Mark Pryor (D-First elected 2002)
Senator Mark Pryor, first elected in 2002 by defeating an entrenched Republican incumbent, Senator Tim Hutchinson, appears to be a fairly safe bet for re-election. Even though his 2002 election was fairly close, Arkansas is a safely Democratic state on the non-Presidential level and Pryor should garner around 58%-60%. Possible GOP challengers include former U.S. Attorney Chuck Banks, former Congressman Asa Hutchinson, and former Governor Mike Huckabee (assuming the President thing doesn't work out).
Delaware - Joe Biden (D-First elected 1972)
Assuming Joe Biden runs for re-election, he'll be a 100% safe bet for re-election. If he doesn't seek re-election (either he gets the Presidential nomination, or doesn't get it and decides to just go do something more lucrative), the Democratic nominee will probably keep the seat in Democratic hands. One possible GOP candidate is Rep. Mike Castle, and a potential Democratic candidate if Joe Biden retires is his son, Attorney General Beau Biden.
Illinois - Dick Durbin (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Dick Durbin, the incoming Majority Whip, will be the heavy favorite in his upcoming re-election campaign. It's highly unlikely that Illinois voters will vote out a Senator who holds so much power in that body. One possible Republican candidate is perennially endangered Congressman Mark Kirk.
Iowa - Tom Harkin (D-First elected 1984)
Tom Harkin, who was re-elected in 2002 with 54% of the vote, shouldn't have much trouble in 2008. Harkin will be Chairman of the Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee and will wield a lot of power in Washington. Iowans will likely realize that in a year when their former Governor, Tom Vilsack, could possibly be on the national ticket. Possible GOP challengers include Congressmen Steve King and Tom Latham, and former Congressman Jim Nussle.
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Mary Landrieu appears to be in a precarious situation. She barely survived a runoff in 2002 against a fairly unknown candidate, Suzanne Haik Terrell. Not only has her approval ratings dropped since Hurricane Katrina, but Louisiana's changing democgraphics because of the storm could have an effect. It is likely many lower income voters and blacks (traditional Democratic votes) who left in 2005 won't be back in full force by 2008. Potential Republican candidates include Congressman Charles Boustany, Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, and, if the 2007 election for Governor doesn't work out, Congressman Bobby Jindal. But, because of Louisiana's crazy election laws, there could also be any number of Democratic and Independent candidates who also jump in.
Massachusetts - John Kerry (D-First elected 1984)
Senator John Kerry will be safe in this Senate seat as long as he wants it. But, if Senator Kerry runs for President again in 2008, state law would prohibit him from seeking both offices. So, if Kerry is still in the mix at the time of Massachusetts' filing deadline, expect a vicious primary on the Democratic side. Potential Democratic candidates are Congressmen Marty Meehan, Stephen Lynch, and Ed Markey (although, if I were a 30-year House incumbent, I'd just sit tight). Rumored Republican candidates include Jermoe Corsi (co-author of 224 pages fit to be used as kindling-also known as Unfit for Command) and former White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card.
Michigan - Carl Levin (D-First elected 1978)
Senator Carl Levin, the incoming Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, recently announced that he would run for a 6th term, and all signs indicate he'll have little trouble winning the election. Levin is pretty popular in Michigan, and, with the absence of any strong challenger, he'll be fine. Potential throw-away candidates for the GOP include Congressmen Mike Rogers and Candice Miller.
Montana - Max Baucus (D-First elected 1978)
Senator Max Baucus, who easily dispatched of his 2002 challenger, a Theodore Roosevelt impersonator, will be re-elected by a wide margin in 2008. To be honest, I really can't come up with any Republican candidates.
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (D-First elected 2002; Previous service 1982-2000)
Senator Frank Lautenberg, despite the fact that I like him and he seems effective, doesn't seem to be well-liked at home. He has said he will seek re-election, but apparently he could change his mind. Even if he doesn't change his mind, he could face a strong primary challenge. Potential Democratic challengers include Congressmen Frank Pallone, Rob Andrews, and Rush Holt (my personal favorite New Jersey congressman), and State Senator John Adler. The Republicans, as always, will have high hopes for this seat. And, as always, their high hopes will be crushed. The potential GOPers include Congressman Frank LoBiondo, State Senator and 2006 nominee Tom Kean Jr., and Assemblymen Bill Baroni and Michael Doherty.
Rhode Island - Jack Reed (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Jack Reed, an outspoken critic of the Iraq War, is a sure-thing bet for re-election in 2008. Senator Reed has an approval rating hovering around 65% and shouldn't even break a sweat running for a third term. I can't really fathom it, but Governor Don Carcieri could be a potential challenger.
South Dakota - Tim Johnson (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Tim Johnson, who recently had emergency brain surgery, has an approval rating around 70%, and the strongest GOP challenger, John Thune, is already a Senator. Should Senator Johnson run for re-election, he would be the favorite, even if Governor Mike Rounds runs. A recent poll showed Johnson polling 54% to Rounds' 39%. Should Senator Johnson retire (a real possibility), potential Democratic candidates would include Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth and former Senator Tom Daschle. The obvious GOP choice in an open-seat race would be Governor Rounds.
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller (D-First elected 1984)
Senator Jay Rockefeller (one of my personal favorite Senators) will be running for a 5th term in 2008 at age 71, and, at least until 2013, will be West Virginia's junior Senator. Senator Rockefeller is very popular in West Virginia, and should have no trouble. The GOP's strongest possible challenger would be Congresswoman Shelley Capito, but she doesn't seem to want to run.
(Look for Part 2 later today)
-Neal
So, first we'll look at the Democrat-held seats we'll be defending.
Arkansas - Mark Pryor (D-First elected 2002)
Senator Mark Pryor, first elected in 2002 by defeating an entrenched Republican incumbent, Senator Tim Hutchinson, appears to be a fairly safe bet for re-election. Even though his 2002 election was fairly close, Arkansas is a safely Democratic state on the non-Presidential level and Pryor should garner around 58%-60%. Possible GOP challengers include former U.S. Attorney Chuck Banks, former Congressman Asa Hutchinson, and former Governor Mike Huckabee (assuming the President thing doesn't work out).
Delaware - Joe Biden (D-First elected 1972)
Assuming Joe Biden runs for re-election, he'll be a 100% safe bet for re-election. If he doesn't seek re-election (either he gets the Presidential nomination, or doesn't get it and decides to just go do something more lucrative), the Democratic nominee will probably keep the seat in Democratic hands. One possible GOP candidate is Rep. Mike Castle, and a potential Democratic candidate if Joe Biden retires is his son, Attorney General Beau Biden.
Illinois - Dick Durbin (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Dick Durbin, the incoming Majority Whip, will be the heavy favorite in his upcoming re-election campaign. It's highly unlikely that Illinois voters will vote out a Senator who holds so much power in that body. One possible Republican candidate is perennially endangered Congressman Mark Kirk.
Iowa - Tom Harkin (D-First elected 1984)
Tom Harkin, who was re-elected in 2002 with 54% of the vote, shouldn't have much trouble in 2008. Harkin will be Chairman of the Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee and will wield a lot of power in Washington. Iowans will likely realize that in a year when their former Governor, Tom Vilsack, could possibly be on the national ticket. Possible GOP challengers include Congressmen Steve King and Tom Latham, and former Congressman Jim Nussle.
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Mary Landrieu appears to be in a precarious situation. She barely survived a runoff in 2002 against a fairly unknown candidate, Suzanne Haik Terrell. Not only has her approval ratings dropped since Hurricane Katrina, but Louisiana's changing democgraphics because of the storm could have an effect. It is likely many lower income voters and blacks (traditional Democratic votes) who left in 2005 won't be back in full force by 2008. Potential Republican candidates include Congressman Charles Boustany, Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, and, if the 2007 election for Governor doesn't work out, Congressman Bobby Jindal. But, because of Louisiana's crazy election laws, there could also be any number of Democratic and Independent candidates who also jump in.
Massachusetts - John Kerry (D-First elected 1984)
Senator John Kerry will be safe in this Senate seat as long as he wants it. But, if Senator Kerry runs for President again in 2008, state law would prohibit him from seeking both offices. So, if Kerry is still in the mix at the time of Massachusetts' filing deadline, expect a vicious primary on the Democratic side. Potential Democratic candidates are Congressmen Marty Meehan, Stephen Lynch, and Ed Markey (although, if I were a 30-year House incumbent, I'd just sit tight). Rumored Republican candidates include Jermoe Corsi (co-author of 224 pages fit to be used as kindling-also known as Unfit for Command) and former White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card.
Michigan - Carl Levin (D-First elected 1978)
Senator Carl Levin, the incoming Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, recently announced that he would run for a 6th term, and all signs indicate he'll have little trouble winning the election. Levin is pretty popular in Michigan, and, with the absence of any strong challenger, he'll be fine. Potential throw-away candidates for the GOP include Congressmen Mike Rogers and Candice Miller.
Montana - Max Baucus (D-First elected 1978)
Senator Max Baucus, who easily dispatched of his 2002 challenger, a Theodore Roosevelt impersonator, will be re-elected by a wide margin in 2008. To be honest, I really can't come up with any Republican candidates.
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (D-First elected 2002; Previous service 1982-2000)
Senator Frank Lautenberg, despite the fact that I like him and he seems effective, doesn't seem to be well-liked at home. He has said he will seek re-election, but apparently he could change his mind. Even if he doesn't change his mind, he could face a strong primary challenge. Potential Democratic challengers include Congressmen Frank Pallone, Rob Andrews, and Rush Holt (my personal favorite New Jersey congressman), and State Senator John Adler. The Republicans, as always, will have high hopes for this seat. And, as always, their high hopes will be crushed. The potential GOPers include Congressman Frank LoBiondo, State Senator and 2006 nominee Tom Kean Jr., and Assemblymen Bill Baroni and Michael Doherty.
Rhode Island - Jack Reed (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Jack Reed, an outspoken critic of the Iraq War, is a sure-thing bet for re-election in 2008. Senator Reed has an approval rating hovering around 65% and shouldn't even break a sweat running for a third term. I can't really fathom it, but Governor Don Carcieri could be a potential challenger.
South Dakota - Tim Johnson (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Tim Johnson, who recently had emergency brain surgery, has an approval rating around 70%, and the strongest GOP challenger, John Thune, is already a Senator. Should Senator Johnson run for re-election, he would be the favorite, even if Governor Mike Rounds runs. A recent poll showed Johnson polling 54% to Rounds' 39%. Should Senator Johnson retire (a real possibility), potential Democratic candidates would include Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth and former Senator Tom Daschle. The obvious GOP choice in an open-seat race would be Governor Rounds.
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller (D-First elected 1984)
Senator Jay Rockefeller (one of my personal favorite Senators) will be running for a 5th term in 2008 at age 71, and, at least until 2013, will be West Virginia's junior Senator. Senator Rockefeller is very popular in West Virginia, and should have no trouble. The GOP's strongest possible challenger would be Congresswoman Shelley Capito, but she doesn't seem to want to run.
(Look for Part 2 later today)
-Neal
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