Perhaps it's too early to begin talking about the 2008 U.S. Senate elections since we haven't even had the swearing-in ceremonies for the Senators elected in 2006 yet. But, being the political creature that I am, I can't wait too talk about it. The way I figure it, things look great for the Democrats. There are 21 Republican-held seats, as opposed to 12 Democrat-held seats. Most of the Democrats are solid bets for re-election, the possible exceptions being Mary Landrieu (LA) and Tim Johnson (SD), who may have a little trouble (Johnson could also hang it up and not seek re-election).
So, first we'll look at the Democrat-held seats we'll be defending.
Arkansas - Mark Pryor (D-First elected 2002)
Senator Mark Pryor, first elected in 2002 by defeating an entrenched Republican incumbent, Senator Tim Hutchinson, appears to be a fairly safe bet for re-election. Even though his 2002 election was fairly close, Arkansas is a safely Democratic state on the non-Presidential level and Pryor should garner around 58%-60%. Possible GOP challengers include former U.S. Attorney Chuck Banks, former Congressman Asa Hutchinson, and former Governor Mike Huckabee (assuming the President thing doesn't work out).
Delaware - Joe Biden (D-First elected 1972)
Assuming Joe Biden runs for re-election, he'll be a 100% safe bet for re-election. If he doesn't seek re-election (either he gets the Presidential nomination, or doesn't get it and decides to just go do something more lucrative), the Democratic nominee will probably keep the seat in Democratic hands. One possible GOP candidate is Rep. Mike Castle, and a potential Democratic candidate if Joe Biden retires is his son, Attorney General Beau Biden.
Illinois - Dick Durbin (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Dick Durbin, the incoming Majority Whip, will be the heavy favorite in his upcoming re-election campaign. It's highly unlikely that Illinois voters will vote out a Senator who holds so much power in that body. One possible Republican candidate is perennially endangered Congressman Mark Kirk.
Iowa - Tom Harkin (D-First elected 1984)
Tom Harkin, who was re-elected in 2002 with 54% of the vote, shouldn't have much trouble in 2008. Harkin will be Chairman of the Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee and will wield a lot of power in Washington. Iowans will likely realize that in a year when their former Governor, Tom Vilsack, could possibly be on the national ticket. Possible GOP challengers include Congressmen Steve King and Tom Latham, and former Congressman Jim Nussle.
Louisiana - Mary Landrieu (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Mary Landrieu appears to be in a precarious situation. She barely survived a runoff in 2002 against a fairly unknown candidate, Suzanne Haik Terrell. Not only has her approval ratings dropped since Hurricane Katrina, but Louisiana's changing democgraphics because of the storm could have an effect. It is likely many lower income voters and blacks (traditional Democratic votes) who left in 2005 won't be back in full force by 2008. Potential Republican candidates include Congressman Charles Boustany, Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, and, if the 2007 election for Governor doesn't work out, Congressman Bobby Jindal. But, because of Louisiana's crazy election laws, there could also be any number of Democratic and Independent candidates who also jump in.
Massachusetts - John Kerry (D-First elected 1984)
Senator John Kerry will be safe in this Senate seat as long as he wants it. But, if Senator Kerry runs for President again in 2008, state law would prohibit him from seeking both offices. So, if Kerry is still in the mix at the time of Massachusetts' filing deadline, expect a vicious primary on the Democratic side. Potential Democratic candidates are Congressmen Marty Meehan, Stephen Lynch, and Ed Markey (although, if I were a 30-year House incumbent, I'd just sit tight). Rumored Republican candidates include Jermoe Corsi (co-author of 224 pages fit to be used as kindling-also known as Unfit for Command) and former White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card.
Michigan - Carl Levin (D-First elected 1978)
Senator Carl Levin, the incoming Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, recently announced that he would run for a 6th term, and all signs indicate he'll have little trouble winning the election. Levin is pretty popular in Michigan, and, with the absence of any strong challenger, he'll be fine. Potential throw-away candidates for the GOP include Congressmen Mike Rogers and Candice Miller.
Montana - Max Baucus (D-First elected 1978)
Senator Max Baucus, who easily dispatched of his 2002 challenger, a Theodore Roosevelt impersonator, will be re-elected by a wide margin in 2008. To be honest, I really can't come up with any Republican candidates.
New Jersey - Frank Lautenberg (D-First elected 2002; Previous service 1982-2000)
Senator Frank Lautenberg, despite the fact that I like him and he seems effective, doesn't seem to be well-liked at home. He has said he will seek re-election, but apparently he could change his mind. Even if he doesn't change his mind, he could face a strong primary challenge. Potential Democratic challengers include Congressmen Frank Pallone, Rob Andrews, and Rush Holt (my personal favorite New Jersey congressman), and State Senator John Adler. The Republicans, as always, will have high hopes for this seat. And, as always, their high hopes will be crushed. The potential GOPers include Congressman Frank LoBiondo, State Senator and 2006 nominee Tom Kean Jr., and Assemblymen Bill Baroni and Michael Doherty.
Rhode Island - Jack Reed (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Jack Reed, an outspoken critic of the Iraq War, is a sure-thing bet for re-election in 2008. Senator Reed has an approval rating hovering around 65% and shouldn't even break a sweat running for a third term. I can't really fathom it, but Governor Don Carcieri could be a potential challenger.
South Dakota - Tim Johnson (D-First elected 1996)
Senator Tim Johnson, who recently had emergency brain surgery, has an approval rating around 70%, and the strongest GOP challenger, John Thune, is already a Senator. Should Senator Johnson run for re-election, he would be the favorite, even if Governor Mike Rounds runs. A recent poll showed Johnson polling 54% to Rounds' 39%. Should Senator Johnson retire (a real possibility), potential Democratic candidates would include Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth and former Senator Tom Daschle. The obvious GOP choice in an open-seat race would be Governor Rounds.
West Virginia - Jay Rockefeller (D-First elected 1984)
Senator Jay Rockefeller (one of my personal favorite Senators) will be running for a 5th term in 2008 at age 71, and, at least until 2013, will be West Virginia's junior Senator. Senator Rockefeller is very popular in West Virginia, and should have no trouble. The GOP's strongest possible challenger would be Congresswoman Shelley Capito, but she doesn't seem to want to run.
(Look for Part 2 later today)
-Neal
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