2008 Looks Great for Senate Democrats (Part 2 of 2)

Alrighty, here's Part 2 of the "2008 Looks Great for Senate Democrats" post. I'll be covering the 21 Republican-held seats, and make the case that we should make significant gains. Here we go.

Alabama - Jeff Sessions (R-First elected 1996)
Senator Jefferson Beauregard Sessions, III (he prefers Jeff) has become a rubber stamp for President Bush, often bordering on comical. He's a rabid defender of Bush, and it could be his downfall. Bush has a 42% approval rating in Alabama (which is big news, since he had been over 10 points higher a year ago). One potential Democratic challenger is Congressman Artur Davis.

Alaska - Ted Stevens (R-First elected 1968)
Senator Ted "Bridge to Nowhere" Stevens will be running for re-election in 2008, despite several cryptic statements to the contrary ("Tonight, I say goodbye to the Senate."). Senator Stevens probably shouldn't have any big trouble being re-elected, but a strong Democrat could make things competitive. The potential candidates on our side include Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich and State Representative Eric Croft.

Colorado - Wayne Allard (R-First elected 1996)
Wayne Allard is doing something rather rare. It appears that he may honor his self-imposed term limits pledge and not seek a third term. But, in true Republican fashion, has left himself wiggle room just in case. He promises to make his final decision in 2007. A potential Republican candidate should Allard retire (and I bet he would be like handling rotten eggs for the White House and RNC) is Congressman Tom Tancredo. Congressman Mark Udall, son of the legendary Congressman Mo Udall, is the most likely Democratic candidate (and a very good one at that). Whether Allard seeks re-election or not, my money is on Udall.

Georgia - Saxby Chambliss (R-First elected 2002)
Senator Saxby Chambliss ran a very negative campaign against then-incumbent Democrat Max Cleland in 2002, and Democrats in Georgia haven't forgotten that. Because Georgia is a Republican state, there are only a few Democrats who could beat Chambliss, among them are Congressman Jim Marshall and Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin.

Idaho - Larry Craig (R-First elected 1990)
Idaho is a very Republican state, and if Larry Craig runs for a 4th term, he'll be re-elected easily. There have, however, been some whispers that he may decide not to run again. If he doesn't run, Congressman Mike Simpson would be the likely GOP choice. Whether he runs or not, former Congressman Larry LaRocco will likely run as a Democrat. But I wouldn't put too much money on an upset here.

Kansas - Pat Roberts (R-First elected 1996)
Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, so I don't think they'll start now. If and when this seat (or Brownback's seat in 2010) comes open, however, Congressman Dennis Moore and Governor Kathleen Sebelius would be strong candidates for the Democrats.

Kentucky - Mitch McConnell (R-First elected 1984)
I've heard people say that Senator Mitch McConnell could be vulnerable. Well, no, I don't think he is. As the incoming Minority Leader, Senator McConnell will wield a huge amount of power in the 110th Congress and I don't see Kentuckians allowing Jim Bunning to ever be called their "Senior Senator" (Jim Bunning should have stuck to baseball. Maybe he could manage the Pittsburgh Pirates. But that should be left for another story). Potential Democratic candidates include Attorney General Greg Stumbo and Congressman John Yarmuth. But if I were them, I wouldn't waste the money. I'd wait until 2010 and take a shot at Bunning's seat.

Maine - Susan Collins (R-First elected 1996)
Even though Senator Susan Collins has a 69% approval rating, she could become the 2008 victim of "The Lincoln Chafee Effect." While people may like her (and they do), they realize that she's still a Republican, and she's still voting with the Sam Brownbacks and Trent Lotts of the world. And they may just turn her out on her ear. Her likely challenger is Democratic Congressman Tom Allen.

Minnesota - Norm Coleman (R-First elected 2002)
Most folks agree that Norm Coleman is in the Senate mainly because of backlash from Senator Paul Wellstone's memorial service just days before the election. He defeated a Minnesota legend, former Vice President Walter Mondale by a close margin, and he would have likely been defeated if the memorial hadn't turned into a political rally. Norm Coleman is probably the most endangered Republican in 2008, and, with a very deep Democratic bench, we'll find out. Potential Democratic candidates include former Attorney General Mike Hatch, State Senator Dean Johnson, Congresswoman Betty McCollum, Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, and Al Franken. Folks, this is the seat that Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale, and Paul Wellstone all held. We need to reclaim it for the Democrats.

Mississippi - Thad Cochran (R-First elected 1978)
Senator Cochran, the first Republican elected statewide in Mississippi in modern times, is a sure bet for re-election if he runs. But that's a big if. Senator Cochran has said he won't decide whether to seek re-election until 2007, indicating that he may be stalling until the GOP can find a top-notch candidate. Right now, the potential GOPers are Congressmen Roger Wicker and Chip Pickering (call me old-fashioned, but any sentence that could begin with "Senator Chip..." makes me want to blow my lunch). On the Democrat side, we have Congressman Gene Taylor (who would probably be the best candidate on either side, bar none) and former Attorney General Mike Moore (I also can't see Mississippians electing someone who's name would probably show on the ballot as "Michael Moore").

Nebraska - Chuck Hagel (R-First elected 1996)
Apparently, Chuck Hagel is contemplating retirement even if he can't get to be president (and I really doubt he could get the nomination. He could probably win a general election though). If he runs, he'll be re-elected with probably 70% or so. If he doesn't run, the potential Republican nominee would be Congressman Lee Terry, and the likely Democratic challenger would be Omaha Mayor (and former Washington Senators catcher) Bill Fahey.

New Mexico - Pete Domenici (R-First elected 1972)
Senator Pete Domenici, known to be in poor health, has indicated he will seek re-election, but he could change his mind if his health continues to deteriorate. If he runs for re-election, he would be the favorite, but, in a state that re-elected Bill Richardson by a huge margin this year, and that has a longtime Democratic senator, too, Domenici could be vulnerable. If he doesn't run for re-election, this seat would move way up on the list of races to watch. Potential Democratic challengers include Congressman Tom Udall (although Udall just landed a seat on the Appropriations Committee), Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, and former Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Potential GOPers will surely step up if Domenici retires, but right now, I can't come up with any.

North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole (R-First elected 2002)
Senator Elizabeth Dole, who not only headed up the fiasco that became the NRSC in 2006, is a possible retirement, but she has indicated (not 100% positive, apparently) that she will run for re-election. She probably won't have much trouble getting a second term, but there are several Democrats who could potentially give her a race. The names I've heard include Governor Mike Easley (probably the top choice), Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, and State Representative Dan Blue (I'm a big fan of Rep. Blue).

Oklahoma - Jim Inhofe (R-First elected 1994)
Senator Jim Inhofe, the most blatant denier of global warming I've ever seen in my life, has been iffy about running again in 2008, but he says he wants to regain his leadership posts in 2008 (but don't they all have to say that?). Even if Senator Inhofe runs again, his approval is only 46%, so he might be vulnerable. Possible Democratic candidates include the son of the man (Senator David Boren) Inhofe replaced, Representative Dan Boren (although Boren says he won't run unless Inhofe retires), Governor Brad Henry, Tulsa Mayor Kathy Taylor, Attorney General Drew Edmondson, and former Congressman Brad Carson.

Oregon - Gordon Smith (R-First elected 1996)
Senator Gordon Smith, the only Republican member of the Udall Dynasty, will be running for a third term in 2008. I genuinely like Senator Smith, and his strong opposition to the Iraq War also helps out. But even a mediocre Democrat is better than a great Republican, and I believe this can be a pickup. State Senator Ben Westlund, a former Republican, is a potential Democratic challenger.

South Carolina - Lindsey Graham (R-First elected 2002)
This was Strom Thurmond's seat from 1954-2002. Let's hope Senator Graham doesn't hold this seat for forty-eight years. It will be difficult to knock Lindsey off, but, with the right candidate, it can be done. I haven't heard any real serious names, but I would suggest either Inez Tenenbaum, the former State Superintendent, or Tommy Moore, the 2006 Democratic nominee for Governor.

Tennessee - Lamar Alexander (R-First elected 2002)
Perennial Presidential wannabe Lamar Alexander, who narrowly lost the election to be Minority Whip in the 110th Congress will be running for a 2nd term in 2008. Alexander would be considered the favorite from the onset, just because Tennessee is pretty solidly Republican (except for the fact Phil Bredesen won every county in Tennessee in 2006). However, Harold Ford's strong showing in 2006 could be a sign that the state could be swinging back to the middle. Potential candidates include 2006 nominee and former Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. and Governor Phil Bredesen (I believe he would be the best candidate possible). Tim McGraw has also expressed interest in running for public office in Tennessee in the future (and he's as solid a Democrat as I've ever seen), but I doubt this will be his race. Maybe 2012 against Bob Corker (just so we'll never have to see the "I'm Bob Corker and I approve this message" commercials ever again).

Texas - John Cornyn (R-First elected 2002)
Senator John "Up or Down Vote" Cornyn (and I wonder if he would be screaming "Up or down vote" if John Kerry were President right now) will be running for a 2nd term in 2008. Unsurprisingly, Cornyn's approval rating is no where near Kay Bailey Hutchison's. Granted, there are no statewide elected Democrats in Texas, but I believe this seat is a possible pickup (not as much as Minnesota or Maine though). Potential candidates include 2006 nominee Barbara Ann Radnofsky, former Congressman Chris Bell, former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, Houston Mayor Bill White, Congressman Henry Cuellar (probably one of the most electable candidates), Congressman Lloyd Doggett, and former Congressman Ken Bentsen.

Virginia - John Warner (R-First elected 1978) (Note: This one will be covered in-depth (VERY in-depth) later this week.)
Senator John Warner, who will be 81 years old in 2008, has indicated he will run for re-election. Recently, he has stated that the attacks on George Allen from Virginia liberal blogs may make him weary to run, possibly fearing a tough, nasty campaign. Should Senator Warner seek re-election, there's probably only one candidate who could beat him (and we all know who he is). Potential GOP candidates if Senator Warner retire include Congressman Tom Davis and former Governor Jim Gilmore (because we assume that President thing won't work out for him). Potential Democratic candidates include former Governor Mark Warner (May I introduce the 800-pound gorilla in the room), and, assuming Warner doesn't run, former Lt. Governor Don Beyer.

Wyoming - Mike Enzi (R-First elected 1996)
Since this is the last race, I'd love to go out with a bang and say there's an amazingly strong Democratic candidate waiting in the wings to take out Senator Enzi, but alas, there's not. Everybody move on. Nothing to see here.